The timing is significant. Both developments demonstrate the growing importance of the island chain stretching from Japan towards Taiwan, where military movements can influence the balance of power across the western Pacific.
What Is Happening?
Keen Sword 27 involves approximately 45,000 Japanese personnel and 12,000 US service members, alongside forces from partner countries. The exercises include amphibious operations, air and missile defence, maritime security, logistics and the defence of Japan’s southwestern islands. US and Japanese forces have also deployed anti-ship and missile systems in the region.
China’s movements have included reconnaissance aircraft and drones passing through the Miyako Strait and between Yonaguni and Taiwan. Japan scrambled fighter aircraft in response. These flights demonstrate China’s ability to operate across important maritime approaches, although Tokyo has cautioned against assuming the precise purpose of individual missions. Taiwan, meanwhile, continues to report Chinese aircraft and naval vessels operating around the island. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has not renounced the use of force to achieve unification. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claim.
Beijing’s Calculations
China views closer US–Japan security cooperation, particularly preparations for a potential Taiwan contingency, as a challenge to its strategic objectives. Beijing opposes what it sees as external interference in a domestic sovereignty issue. Reconnaissance flights and naval deployments can serve several purposes: gathering intelligence, testing responses, demonstrating operational reach and signalling opposition to allied military cooperation. However, the available evidence does not establish that every Chinese movement is a direct response to Keen Sword. For Beijing, the broader objective is to discourage outside intervention and preserve military options around Taiwan without necessarily triggering a conflict.
Two Military Moves, One Strategic Flashpoint
The waters around Taiwan are once again a focal point of strategic competition. On 19 October, the United States and Japan began Keen Sword 27, a major joint exercise running until 29 October. At the same time, Japan reported Chinese military aircraft and drones operating through passages between its southwestern islands, including routes near Taiwan.
As US and Japanese forces conduct major military drills near Taiwan, Chinese aircraft and naval movements are adding to regional tensions. The question is whether these displays of strength will deter conflict or increase the risk of miscalculation.
By Geopolitical Analysis Desk, The Centre
25 October 2026 • 03:44 PM IST • 5 min read
Washington and Tokyo’s Message
The US and Japan describe their exercises as preparations for regional contingencies and the defence of Japanese territory. Their cooperation is intended to improve interoperability, reinforce deterrence and demonstrate that their forces can operate together under pressure. Japan’s role is particularly important. Its southwestern islands lie close to Taiwan and alongside routes linking the East China Sea to the wider Pacific. Deploying missile systems and rehearsing island defence gives Japan additional options in a crisis, but also makes its military posture more consequential in Beijing’s calculations. The same preparations that reassure allies may be interpreted by China as evidence of containment. That gap between intention and perception is central to the strategic contest.
The Risk of Miscalculation
Military exercises do not, by themselves, indicate that war is imminent. They can improve readiness and reduce uncertainty about how allies would respond to a crisis.
But sustained operations by rival forces in the same airspace and maritime approaches create opportunities for incidents, misinterpretation and rapid escalation. A collision, an unsafe interception or a crisis over Taiwan could force governments to make consequential decisions under intense pressure. The challenge is to maintain credible deterrence while preserving communication channels and avoiding actions that leave the other side believing it must respond immediately.
Why It Matters Beyond East Asia
Taiwan sits near major maritime routes and at the centre of a wider contest over regional security and technological supply chains. A serious disruption in the Taiwan Strait could affect shipping, trade and semiconductor production, with consequences extending well beyond East Asia. For India, developments matter because they affect Indo-Pacific stability, freedom of navigation and the strategic environment in which regional powers operate. New Delhi must assess these shifts while balancing its own interests and relationships across the region.
Deterrence or Escalation?
The immediate story is not simply that China and the US–Japan alliance are displaying military strength. It is that both sides are operating in a region where geography compresses decision-making time and where their strategic intentions are viewed with deep suspicion. Deterrence may help prevent conflict. But it is not automatic: it depends on credible capabilities, clear signalling and the ability to manage crises when assumptions fail. The key test will be whether these military demonstrations reinforce a stable balance or make the next confrontation harder to contain.
