Now, after more than two decades of military involvement, Washington is preparing to leave its remaining Iraqi bases by September 30. Reuters reports that the withdrawal, agreed in 2024, is being completed under the Trump administration.
America Leaves. Iraq Takes Responsibility.
The departure marks more than the end of a military deployment. It closes one of the longest chapters of American involvement in the Middle East. For many Iraqis, the withdrawal represents greater national sovereignty. But the transition also puts greater responsibility on Iraqi security forces, particularly as ISIS sleeper cells remain a concern. Reuters reported that Iraqi security officials have seen signs of increased militant activity around the withdrawal, although ISIS no longer controls territory comparable to its 2014–17 expansion.
The War That Changed Iraq
The American story in Iraq began with the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. US forces eventually withdrew in 2011, only to return three years later when ISIS captured large parts of Iraq and Syria.
After more than two decades of war, occupation and counterterrorism, the United States is leaving Iraq. But the end of the American military presence opens a new chapter for Baghdad and raises questions about Iran’s influence and Iraq’s security.
By Geopolitical Analysis Desk, The Centre
29 September 2026 • 09:20 PM IST • 6 min read
The Iran Question
The biggest geopolitical question is what happens to the balance of influence inside Iraq.
Iran has built deep political and security relationships with Iraqi groups over many years. Iranian-backed militias and political factions therefore see the American departure as a strategic gain.
But Iraq is not simply a contest between Washington and Tehran. Baghdad has repeatedly tried to maintain relationships with both countries while asserting its own sovereignty. The American withdrawal may reduce Washington's military leverage, but it does not automatically give Iran control over Iraq.
The Security Gap
The other concern is what happens if the American counterweight disappears faster than Iraq can consolidate its own security architecture.
The Atlantic Council notes that the withdrawal formally closes the US-led campaign against ISIS in Iraq, while analysts continue to debate Iraq's ability to manage remaining security threats independently. Iraq therefore faces a difficult balancing act: strengthening state authority while dealing with armed groups, ISIS remnants and competing regional powers.
A New Iraq?
The United States is leaving, but Iraq's strategic story is far from over. The real test begins after the last American troops depart. Can Baghdad translate the end of foreign military presence into greater state authority and strategic autonomy? Or will the space left by Washington increasingly be occupied by other regional powers? The end of America's Iraq war may be approaching. The next chapter belongs to Iraq.
