Yet history urges caution. The Middle East has witnessed numerous ceasefires, negotiations and peace initiatives over the decades. Many have reduced violence temporarily. Few have resolved the underlying conflict. The question today is no longer whether diplomacy exists. It is whether politics will allow diplomacy to succeed.
Netanyahu's Political Equation
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ending the war is not solely a military decision. It is also a political calculation. His government depends on coalition partners who have consistently opposed concessions that could leave Hamas with political or military influence in Gaza. Any agreement perceived as compromising Israel's security could threaten the stability of the governing coalition.
Public opinion has also been fundamentally shaped by the October 7 attacks. For many Israelis, the central question is no longer how quickly the war ends, but whether any agreement can convincingly guarantee that such an attack can never happen again. There is another political reality that cannot be ignored. The war has understandably dominated Israel's national agenda. As the conflict eventually subsides, public attention is likely to return to domestic issues, including Netanyahu's ongoing legal proceedings, official inquiries into the government's handling of the events leading up to October 7 and broader questions of political accountability. None of these factors alone determines government policy. Together, however, they make any major political compromise significantly more difficult.
Hamas Faces Its Own Constraints
Political pressure is not exclusive to Israel. Hamas also confronts a difficult balancing act. Agreeing to negotiations, discussing disarmament or accepting a new governing arrangement cannot appear as unconditional surrender to its supporters. Any compromise must be presented as part of a broader political agreement involving Israeli withdrawal, security guarantees and the future administration of Gaza. This explains why negotiations often become disputes over sequencing rather than principle. Each side wants the other to move first.
The latest diplomatic efforts have revived hopes of a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and renewed negotiations involving Hamas. Yet the greatest obstacles to peace no longer lie on the battlefield. They lie in domestic politics, competing strategic objectives and the unresolved question of who governs Gaza once the fighting ends.
By Abhinav Mudaliar
Chief Analyst, The Centre
01 August 2026 • 03:30 PM IST • 5 min read
Months of devastating conflict have once again produced renewed diplomatic momentum. Reports of a U.S.-backed roadmap, discussions surrounding a phased Israeli withdrawal and indications that Hamas is willing to negotiate under specific conditions have reignited hopes that the war could eventually move toward a political settlement.
The Question That Still Has No Answer
Even if a ceasefire is reached, even if Israeli forces gradually withdraw, even if Hamas accepts some form of disarmament, The central question remains unanswered.
"Who governs Gaza?"
The possibilities continue to be debated: The Palestinian Authority or An international transitional administration. or An Arab-led stabilisation mission or an entirely new governing framework supported by regional and international actors.
Without a credible answer, any ceasefire risks becoming only a pause in hostilities rather than the foundation of lasting peace.
Peace Is Harder Than War
Wars are often concluded through military exhaustion. Peace requires something far more demanding: Political legitimacy, Public trust, Functional governance, Economic reconstruction, Security guarantees and Regional cooperation. Each of these is considerably more difficult to build than a ceasefire agreement. This is why diplomatic breakthroughs frequently struggle long after the guns fall silent.
Beyond Withdrawal
The future of Gaza will not be decided solely by whether Israeli troops leave or whether Hamas agrees to negotiate. The more difficult challenge lies beyond the battlefield. Can Israeli leaders persuade their citizens that compromise enhances security rather than weakens it? Can Palestinian leaders build a political order capable of governing Gaza after years of conflict? Can regional and international actors support reconstruction without creating another cycle of instability?
A military withdrawal may mark the end of one phase of the war. It will not, by itself, mark the beginning of peace. Peace begins only when political realities become as manageable as military ones. And today, those political realities remain every bit as formidable as the conflict itself.
